2009 China's auto market, "Paul 10" conflict
"The automobile commerce restructuring and revitalization of planning" suggested in 2009 to China's automobile output and sales efforts more than 10 million, three-year mean development rate of 10 per hundred, it is essential to accomplish this aim is not very easy to accomplish in 2009 is 10% development , there still live several variables. In 2008, the nationwide automobile output and sales to 9,323,600, and 9,363,300, contrasted to the past, expanding output and sales groundwork, it is essential to accomplish 10% for three successive years of high development, the dispute is not small.
Growth curve is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations?
Ministry of information industry and published data show that in March, the National Automobile production 1,095,400, 35.59% growth in chain (in February than in March), an increase of 5.55%; sales 1,109,800, ring than the 34.10 percent growth, an increase of 5.01%.
Data in March to the automobile market a shot in the arm: first, sales of more than a quarter of the U.S. market, China has become the world's biggest automobile buyer market; Second, a lone month to come back to one million steps; Third, an boost of the past six months the the largest point.
However, we should in addition observe there are more problems: First, sales expansion exceeded 5% only, and not high; the second, "the world" is only interim, full-year 2009 may be arduous to surpass the United States; the third , since the second half of 2008, an advance of down too, the prevailing expansion turn is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations? It is arduous to declare now; Fourth, quick expansion in March, the source reasons for of guideline moved ahead, use duty, pay for duty slice, and the fuel duty reorganise, a succession of guidelines for instance automobile surrounding territories acted a job in propping up the market; Fifth, divergences in use structure and apparently, in March sales of 772,400 commuter motor vehicles, up 10.26 out of 100, but sales of economic vehicles was 337,400 yuan, down 5.29%; the sixth, but the advance in automobile goods produced and sales financial gatherings half of the yield are opposing expansion, that there is still the subject of cost manipulate, fiscal critical purpose, the consequence on the actual economic procedure is still deepening.
1-3 months in 2009, automobile production and sales 2,567,600 and 2,678,800, an increase of only 1.91% and 3.88%, reduced from the current inventory, and some models sold out of the market situation, 2009 years to achieve the goal of 10% is likely to achieve, but the pressure is not small and can only be cautiously optimistic.
In 2008, the countrywide automobile goods produced and sales declined year-on-year advance of 16.87 and 15.21 percentage points, in which motor vehicle sales declined 20 and 16 percentage points descent in the magnitude of the year, and the first quarter of this year sales expansion of only 1. 91% and 3.88%, consequently, if the warmer automobile market is the key.
Small displacement and the role of motor vehicles can be driven to the countryside long?
As a result of the consumption tax, purchase tax cut, small displacement car sales rising, but also there are two problems: First, what displacement is the "small displacement", the upper limit of the small number of emission? Second, small displacement vehicles (even the general concept of small displacement) of the virtual image is still hot, the market share was not high.
"The automobile commerce restructuring and revitalization of planning" presents that from 2009 January 20 to December 31, and underneath 1.6 liters of displacement by 5% of traveller vehicle buy levy levied; At the identical time, the next three years, " displacement of 1.5 liters of the following traveller market share overhead 40%, of which a little displacement underneath 1.0 liters vehicle market share overhead 15% "; vehicle for the rural areas is the displacement of 1.3 liters for the following cars.
So, what is "small displacement" countrywide motor vehicle is not very distinctly delineated, the development did not conclusive, 1.6 liters, 1.5 liters, 1.3 liters or 1.0 liters? Policy of ambiguity at a forfeit for some enterprises, financial endeavour in R & D indecisive.
One is 1.0 liters and under is the actual type of tiny displacement motor vehicles, if so, this part of the market share types in item very tiny, not very sultry but in addition the future of preferential guidelines to farther can not only cover this part of model.
The first quarter, SAIC-GM-Wuling sales 246,293, up 34.5 out of 100, this expansion was chiefly due to the high use duty, and vehicle pay for duty lessening guideline support to countryside environs, and SAIC-GM-Wuling is supported on micro-off supported financial gathering, is a motor vehicle to the surrounding territories the most direct beneficiaries of the guideline, consequently, SAIC-GM-Wuling, high-growth does not intend that a tiny displacement of the "golden period" on the up.
1-3 months, sales of motor vehicles out the apex 10 brand labels are: F3, Excelle, Yuet move, Jetta, QQ, Santana, Elantra, Xiali, Accord, Corolla, which can be observed, 1.3 or the following small number types actually.
At present, the auto guideline support to countryside environs are chiefly wares and micro-light commuter motor vehicles out; China's auto market is the "golden output" is still 1.6 to 2.4 liters; by the fundamental thought of the consequence of use, 1.3 liters emissions and trade the following motor vehicle types have yet to be upgraded; the consequence of the charge itself is still bigger than the consequence of oil prices. The long time span, small-displacement motor vehicle to the surrounding territories and the hauling effect of these two environs may not have looked frontwards to less than ideal.
The problem is that the current increase mainly by small displacement with the vehicle driven to the countryside, and this is where the worry.
Decline in trade items earnings down turn
In 2008, the countrywide automobile trade overseas 684,900, accounting for the in the household automobile goods produced 7.36 out of 100, an advance of 67.7 percentage points decline; the first quarter of 2009, countrywide automobile trade overseas 61,000 yuan, down 62.06 %.
This means that export growth in decline in 2008, based on the year 2009, exports are likely to drop the more serious.
On the one hand, China's auto trade overseas chiefly condensed concurrently in the "Asia" territory, the location stayed at than the migraine itself, narrower; On the other hand, in actual by the exchange rate is subject to the consequence of fiscal critical purpose, the worldwide motor vehicle market shrinking speedily, trade overseas descent exacerbated by the prevailing heading down movement continues.
In addition, although China's auto products cheap, but the quality of word-of-mouth and brand image still needs to be improved, and this is a long-term can be effective. To sum up, the situation was very serious automobile exports.
According to China's Automobile Association statistics, this year, 1-2 months, large-scale automobile enterprises the main business income of 320.413 billion yuan, up 9.42 percent decline, the profit amounted to 9.879 billion yuan, up 50 percent decline.
2008, 19 key enterprises in the automobile development (group) on the complete descent in yield, while the speedier descent in 2009. Decline in yield for more reasons: On the one hand, 2008 is chiefly due to getting higher charges, carried on to descent in 2009 that cost manipulate in enterprises is still a large problem; On the other hand, clearly present the upshots of market farther intensified, financial gatherings may not like to charge the market unfailing insist to worse costs, but view at the long-term movement will continue; the most rudimentary justification is the constricted amount of enterprise, productivity is not high, lithe goods produced is not realised and the stage of precision organisation is not high.
Policy to support the face wants to be augmented
2009, a positive factor for China's auto market more than the negative factors, the overall terms of the bright spot in the world will continue to be, but is currently facing great challenges, whether the next three years, "Paul 10" the need for policy support was further expanded.
2009, goods produced competence and organisation of even the utmost stages of Toyota's yield is looked frontwards to to have extensively worse, we can observe how serious the circumstances, in the household enterprises are looking at "the expansion of trouble" and the dual demands of external challenges.
Policy support is not protectionism, the state procurement is not inclined to own emblem is "the buy of household goods in a" replica.
First, the vehicle should be farther amplified to country localities, concern could be granted a farther 50 million to support the utilisation of little displacement vehicles, despite of their own emblems and junction project emblems, so as to bypass conflicts.
Second, the acquisition of duty could be farther lessened under 1.3 liters and the vehicle could be deliberated tax-free; from 1.3 to 1.8 liters could be deliberated to 3%; from 1.8 to 2.4 liters could be deliberated down to 5 %. Will be less duty profits, but the automotive client and other consumer-driven, apparently to endorse the job of in the household demand.
Third, the abolition of travel tax to clean up a further charge of secondary roads to prevent disguised charges.
Fourth, the road to recover the loan principal and interest of loans after the country, to stop the charges.
Fifth, to speed up the domestic market into line with international oil prices, and to change the current domestic oil price rise in international oil prices rose rapidly, the domestic oil prices in international oil prices gradually dropped down the status quo of the blame.
Sixth, to farther intensify in the new power, new technologies in support of efforts to boost the autonomy of the personal vehicle R & D support.
Seventh, automobile exports increased support, the appropriate vehicle to raise the export tax rebate rate, the establishment of a special incentive fund to enhance export services platform.
Eighth, the norms and the advancement of engine vehicle economic development, and befitting relaxation rate vehicle borrowings and down fee, at the identical time the firm administration of individual borrowing records.
IX, regulate second-hand car market, to support new-generation car consumption, buy used cars to expand the policy to support the new surface can be extended to 20 million cars in the area, but not limited to redemption of light goods, such as micro-off. - 18423
Growth curve is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations?
Ministry of information industry and published data show that in March, the National Automobile production 1,095,400, 35.59% growth in chain (in February than in March), an increase of 5.55%; sales 1,109,800, ring than the 34.10 percent growth, an increase of 5.01%.
Data in March to the automobile market a shot in the arm: first, sales of more than a quarter of the U.S. market, China has become the world's biggest automobile buyer market; Second, a lone month to come back to one million steps; Third, an boost of the past six months the the largest point.
However, we should in addition observe there are more problems: First, sales expansion exceeded 5% only, and not high; the second, "the world" is only interim, full-year 2009 may be arduous to surpass the United States; the third , since the second half of 2008, an advance of down too, the prevailing expansion turn is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations? It is arduous to declare now; Fourth, quick expansion in March, the source reasons for of guideline moved ahead, use duty, pay for duty slice, and the fuel duty reorganise, a succession of guidelines for instance automobile surrounding territories acted a job in propping up the market; Fifth, divergences in use structure and apparently, in March sales of 772,400 commuter motor vehicles, up 10.26 out of 100, but sales of economic vehicles was 337,400 yuan, down 5.29%; the sixth, but the advance in automobile goods produced and sales financial gatherings half of the yield are opposing expansion, that there is still the subject of cost manipulate, fiscal critical purpose, the consequence on the actual economic procedure is still deepening.
1-3 months in 2009, automobile production and sales 2,567,600 and 2,678,800, an increase of only 1.91% and 3.88%, reduced from the current inventory, and some models sold out of the market situation, 2009 years to achieve the goal of 10% is likely to achieve, but the pressure is not small and can only be cautiously optimistic.
In 2008, the countrywide automobile goods produced and sales declined year-on-year advance of 16.87 and 15.21 percentage points, in which motor vehicle sales declined 20 and 16 percentage points descent in the magnitude of the year, and the first quarter of this year sales expansion of only 1. 91% and 3.88%, consequently, if the warmer automobile market is the key.
Small displacement and the role of motor vehicles can be driven to the countryside long?
As a result of the consumption tax, purchase tax cut, small displacement car sales rising, but also there are two problems: First, what displacement is the "small displacement", the upper limit of the small number of emission? Second, small displacement vehicles (even the general concept of small displacement) of the virtual image is still hot, the market share was not high.
"The automobile commerce restructuring and revitalization of planning" presents that from 2009 January 20 to December 31, and underneath 1.6 liters of displacement by 5% of traveller vehicle buy levy levied; At the identical time, the next three years, " displacement of 1.5 liters of the following traveller market share overhead 40%, of which a little displacement underneath 1.0 liters vehicle market share overhead 15% "; vehicle for the rural areas is the displacement of 1.3 liters for the following cars.
So, what is "small displacement" countrywide motor vehicle is not very distinctly delineated, the development did not conclusive, 1.6 liters, 1.5 liters, 1.3 liters or 1.0 liters? Policy of ambiguity at a forfeit for some enterprises, financial endeavour in R & D indecisive.
One is 1.0 liters and under is the actual type of tiny displacement motor vehicles, if so, this part of the market share types in item very tiny, not very sultry but in addition the future of preferential guidelines to farther can not only cover this part of model.
The first quarter, SAIC-GM-Wuling sales 246,293, up 34.5 out of 100, this expansion was chiefly due to the high use duty, and vehicle pay for duty lessening guideline support to countryside environs, and SAIC-GM-Wuling is supported on micro-off supported financial gathering, is a motor vehicle to the surrounding territories the most direct beneficiaries of the guideline, consequently, SAIC-GM-Wuling, high-growth does not intend that a tiny displacement of the "golden period" on the up.
1-3 months, sales of motor vehicles out the apex 10 brand labels are: F3, Excelle, Yuet move, Jetta, QQ, Santana, Elantra, Xiali, Accord, Corolla, which can be observed, 1.3 or the following small number types actually.
At present, the auto guideline support to countryside environs are chiefly wares and micro-light commuter motor vehicles out; China's auto market is the "golden output" is still 1.6 to 2.4 liters; by the fundamental thought of the consequence of use, 1.3 liters emissions and trade the following motor vehicle types have yet to be upgraded; the consequence of the charge itself is still bigger than the consequence of oil prices. The long time span, small-displacement motor vehicle to the surrounding territories and the hauling effect of these two environs may not have looked frontwards to less than ideal.
The problem is that the current increase mainly by small displacement with the vehicle driven to the countryside, and this is where the worry.
Decline in trade items earnings down turn
In 2008, the countrywide automobile trade overseas 684,900, accounting for the in the household automobile goods produced 7.36 out of 100, an advance of 67.7 percentage points decline; the first quarter of 2009, countrywide automobile trade overseas 61,000 yuan, down 62.06 %.
This means that export growth in decline in 2008, based on the year 2009, exports are likely to drop the more serious.
On the one hand, China's auto trade overseas chiefly condensed concurrently in the "Asia" territory, the location stayed at than the migraine itself, narrower; On the other hand, in actual by the exchange rate is subject to the consequence of fiscal critical purpose, the worldwide motor vehicle market shrinking speedily, trade overseas descent exacerbated by the prevailing heading down movement continues.
In addition, although China's auto products cheap, but the quality of word-of-mouth and brand image still needs to be improved, and this is a long-term can be effective. To sum up, the situation was very serious automobile exports.
According to China's Automobile Association statistics, this year, 1-2 months, large-scale automobile enterprises the main business income of 320.413 billion yuan, up 9.42 percent decline, the profit amounted to 9.879 billion yuan, up 50 percent decline.
2008, 19 key enterprises in the automobile development (group) on the complete descent in yield, while the speedier descent in 2009. Decline in yield for more reasons: On the one hand, 2008 is chiefly due to getting higher charges, carried on to descent in 2009 that cost manipulate in enterprises is still a large problem; On the other hand, clearly present the upshots of market farther intensified, financial gatherings may not like to charge the market unfailing insist to worse costs, but view at the long-term movement will continue; the most rudimentary justification is the constricted amount of enterprise, productivity is not high, lithe goods produced is not realised and the stage of precision organisation is not high.
Policy to support the face wants to be augmented
2009, a positive factor for China's auto market more than the negative factors, the overall terms of the bright spot in the world will continue to be, but is currently facing great challenges, whether the next three years, "Paul 10" the need for policy support was further expanded.
2009, goods produced competence and organisation of even the utmost stages of Toyota's yield is looked frontwards to to have extensively worse, we can observe how serious the circumstances, in the household enterprises are looking at "the expansion of trouble" and the dual demands of external challenges.
Policy support is not protectionism, the state procurement is not inclined to own emblem is "the buy of household goods in a" replica.
First, the vehicle should be farther amplified to country localities, concern could be granted a farther 50 million to support the utilisation of little displacement vehicles, despite of their own emblems and junction project emblems, so as to bypass conflicts.
Second, the acquisition of duty could be farther lessened under 1.3 liters and the vehicle could be deliberated tax-free; from 1.3 to 1.8 liters could be deliberated to 3%; from 1.8 to 2.4 liters could be deliberated down to 5 %. Will be less duty profits, but the automotive client and other consumer-driven, apparently to endorse the job of in the household demand.
Third, the abolition of travel tax to clean up a further charge of secondary roads to prevent disguised charges.
Fourth, the road to recover the loan principal and interest of loans after the country, to stop the charges.
Fifth, to speed up the domestic market into line with international oil prices, and to change the current domestic oil price rise in international oil prices rose rapidly, the domestic oil prices in international oil prices gradually dropped down the status quo of the blame.
Sixth, to farther intensify in the new power, new technologies in support of efforts to boost the autonomy of the personal vehicle R & D support.
Seventh, automobile exports increased support, the appropriate vehicle to raise the export tax rebate rate, the establishment of a special incentive fund to enhance export services platform.
Eighth, the norms and the advancement of engine vehicle economic development, and befitting relaxation rate vehicle borrowings and down fee, at the identical time the firm administration of individual borrowing records.
IX, regulate second-hand car market, to support new-generation car consumption, buy used cars to expand the policy to support the new surface can be extended to 20 million cars in the area, but not limited to redemption of light goods, such as micro-off. - 18423
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