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Monday, April 20, 2009

China's auto commerce lost 50% of the outflow of earnings 62% of instructions

By Zou himfr

China's auto output and sales since the first quarter of this year while a new record high, but did not stimulate an boost in business earnings, and trade items even more critical position, a important down turn in overseas orders.

Domestic: the structural growth of the market

April 13, issued by the Association of mist in March vehicle sales written knowledge present that the windup of China's motor vehicle sales 1,109,700, the Central than the 34.10 out of 100 expansion, year-on-year expansion of 5.01%, respectively, arriving at the utmost stage in the matching interval in earlier years. At the matching time, the first quarter of the total motor vehicle sales arrived at 2,678,800, surpassing the United States one time over, making China the world's greatest new client market.

In this consider, the rationale of vapour to aid the Secretary-General accepts as factual that whereas the above-mentioned facts and numbers display that the country's principle function to stimulate the finances extend to be productive, the automobile market has begun to step-by-step choose up, but has not advanced functioning efficiency. This is because the vehicle market is mostly associated to functional development, by the State to boost the little vehicles the principle significances, of which 45% of the vehicle advantage, but the other 55% of the forms are still down.

Association data show that in the vapor, driving the growth contribution of automobile production and sales of the three largest models are cross-type passenger cars, lorries and cars. Cross-type passenger cars is the most important benefit by the policy model, a single ring on the same period last year more than three consecutive months and to maintain growth in the first quarter of year-on-year growth of 34.78 percent, higher than the industry growth rate of 26.97 percent. The first quarter and 1.6 liters displacement following the sale of passenger cars reached 1,411,400, an increase of 21.93 percent, higher than the passenger car industry growth rate 14.12 percent, 70.72 percent market share, higher than 8.19 the same period last year percentage points. 1.6 liters and below the current emission of passenger cars across the board price of a callback, the beginning of the end of last year and this year the dealer price concessions have been rare sight.

But the policy does not benefit the other models the situation is not optimistic, MPV first quarter sales of 46,700 yuan, down 15.47 percent; semitrailer tractors, buses and trucks drop nonholonomic vehicles more obvious, semi-trailer tractor sales down 70% . The same period last year, the 9 categories A total of 5 sub-model cars fell 4 models up there.

January-February enterprises atop designated amount motor vehicle principle enterprise wages of 320.413 billion yuan, up 9.42 out of 100 descent, the yield amounted to 9.879 billion yuan, up 50 out of 100 decline, decline significantly. Steam Association in the 19 key enterprise gatherings of the monetary circumstances in January-February in addition demonstrates this purpose, and decline more than the development average.

GF Securities analyst related that because of structural growth, mainly displacement 1.6 liters and below the market and cross-type passenger cars of these two models by the policy to stimulate growth, and they all belong to meager profit products, price and profits are relatively low.

"The so-called down turn in the effectiveness of two, is a decrease, there is a down turn in earnings growth. We wish that the interest rate is higher than sales development, which show the high value-added. But now the auto commerce there have been less than perfect form, that is, the down turn in earnings development, but it is not directly go in the stage of a comprehensive loss. "visit of Deputy Secretary-General of the Association that the Jie Yao, and contrasted to other commerce, the automotive commerce has not failed a large number of layoffs to decrease the large number of dealers, output and trading is still in the somewhat steady state.

Exports: trade protectionism

With the in the household automobile goods produced and sales, China's auto trade overseas, it was an apparent descent continued. Originated in deduced nations the fiscal critical purpose has distribute to arising markets, the two market demand of China's trade overseas of elements and vehicles producing noteworthy defiance, effecting in a extensive descent in enterprise briefings, and even then no one can.

According to Association of gas statistics, automobile trade overseas as long as the first quarter this year, 61,000 yuan, down 62.06 out of 100, the apex five exporters are a extensive descent in exports. According to way of life statistics, China's trade overseas in the first two months of this year 40,000 drive vehicles, prized at 630 million U.S. dollars, respectively, plunged 49.8 out of 100 and 61.7 percent. One in February for a solitary month trade overseas size in 2007 the least purpose since the monthly exports.

China's auto components trade items development has conspicuously slowed down down. Since January 1 this year, the China to advance content and 553 types of high-tech mechanical and electric goods with high value-added trade items levy refund rate, several auto components goods to be encompassed, but not a affirmative component for the principle to save the vehicle, for example mechanism and electrical devices tendency down turn in exports. Data display that the first 2 months, the United States and Europe on China's auto components trade items declined 36.4%, 35.9% and 50%. At present, a decline in demand for appearing markets the position is not optimistic.

"Great Wall Motor in Russia, were affected in southern Africa, mainly the absence of orders, at the same time resulted in the appreciation of the renminbi weakening of the competitiveness of their products." Great Wall Motor Company vice president of marketing your business-yu said, "Great Wall Motor's export volume during the first quarter to 1 more than 10,000 vehicles, up more than 40% down. "

Russia set up the protection of high tariffs and other trade barriers, affecting almost all the domestic automobile export enterprises, the Great Wall, Chery, Geely, Brilliance and other important automobile export enterprises, almost had to give up faced with this once the largest export market . In fact, according to the General Administration of Customs statistics, from January this year, Argentina, the United States, Russia has decided to originating in China's automobile engines and other products made with the differential anti-dumping or countervailing determination.

The end of last month, has once again been Brilliance China Automotive (ADAC) is given "piecemeal" the crash test results, but the Brilliance Junjie at the same time participating in the experiment of Austria, the Netherlands and Switzerland but the crash test body is given the "Samsung" evaluation results. This is not difficult to see, in the face of China's auto exports, ADAC such organizations do not consciously or even act as a "trade protectionism" vanguard role.

Increasingly complex international trade environment has increased the difficulty of auto exports, the Commerce Department's export trade as the competent departments, has been introduced measures to encourage exports, but the further spread of the financial crisis, as well as the impact of trade protectionism, these policies have so far have little effect. Department of Commerce Office of the Director of the State machinery and electronic products, some incentives are too late to play a role, such as changes in currency exchange rates, as some problems.

South Africa vehicle deal tariffs is 4%, comparable to those to nations with worse duty rates for deals and trade overseas of enterprises are the most beneficial, but due to the acknowledgement of the yuan exchange rate commanded to modifications in the restricted Chinese yield have no competent for instance, and if the restricted vegetation was too late.

And on the auto elements trade overseas, the bulk of enterprises as a effect of China's R & D capability is frail, uncompetitive yield, returning the slow and other elements, this is the constraints of its trade overseas of long-term problem. - 18423

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